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So Much For Sentiment

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It was reported this morning that Giants' pitcher Madison Bumgarner has signed a 5-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks, which keeps him in the same division with his former team. He's reported to have been offered a 4-year deal by the Giants, for equivalent annual salary, but he chose to take an extra year.  




As early as way back in 2009, comparing Bum to Tim Lincecum, I predicted that long after Lincecum's career was history, the Lefty would still be pumping out 200 innings a year, and winning games at a Hall-of-Fame clip. 

The Giants' decline since 2014 has been the result of the inevitable aging of key players. I probably wouldn't have expected this to happen to Posey, but catching is a grind, and Buster didn't posses the big, sturdy body the classic squat position requires for durability. Bumgarner, on the other hand, despite some recent injuries, had the kind of durability that almost guaranteed a long career. 

MadBum's unexpected injuries in 2017 and 2018 certainly changed the picture significantly--lost years in which his typical season number (16-8, say) would have continued. Undoubtedly, the decline of the team's fortunes boded ill for veterans still hanging on five years after their last title. I'd expect Belt, Crawford and Pablo all will leave before long, though Posey might be gone too. Baseball is a business, and there are no guarantees in professional sport. 

Baseball has increasingly become hard-hearted. Free-agency has played a part, and the new theoretical bases for moving players based on the exquisite statistical analyses such as those employed by the Oakland A's, together with the high-roller payrolls some of the big urban teams now carry, has meant a further erosion of the fan identification with key home-team favorites. After winning three championships in five years, the Giants knew the dream wouldn't continue: Dynasties can't be sustained as they once could be, no matter how much money there is to acquire the big-name players year after year. 

I suspect that Bumgarner will have a respectable career when it's all said and done. Rather than the 300 wins he might have gotten, he'll probably end up with about 215, a good number, but not in my opinion what he ought to have done. But inside that career, will always be those three World Series rings. General Manager Farhan Zaidi--I'll never get used to a name like that--seems to want to build a team out of younger talent, working through the farm system, and filling in with ho-hum journeymen while that talent matures. This would work if the farm system showed promise, but the team's rookies over the last five years have been anything but stellar. Lincecum, Sandoval, Bumgarner, Posey and Crawford were all developed from within, but that was a decade or more ago. 

Giving up a proven talent, popular with fans, over a one-year contract difference, for a pitcher still in the prime of his career, seems to me a stupid move. Bumgarner is the type of pitcher every team needs and wants, sturdy, competitive, committed, with a proven track record. He's a once-in-a-generation player for any team. And MadBum was ours, a kid who came up and immediately showed all the best qualities. 

Without strong young arms coming up, standing pat looks like stalling. Re-building is an inevitable trend in every pro-team's evolution over time. But turning squads over just for the sake of doing so, to show that hard realities are smarter than sentiment, looks like bad strategy. Zaidi won't be able to replace Bumgarner, and that will mean the team's fortunes will suffer. 

The Giants will regret having let their Ace go. You heard it first here. 


Going Material: The Recklessness of Not Being Mistaken [2019]

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As 2019 draws to a close, I look back over the year, my 72nd birthday year, and take stock. 

It was a busy year, mostly devoted to my book business, with this one big project, undertaken at the end of 2018, and completed in July. 

I've always had an ambiguous position with respect to publication. As an aspiring poet in the early 1970's, I was often disappointed that the works I got published were invariably those which I felt least represented who I was as a writer. Of course, the act of publication is as much a process of self-discovery as of pure intention and will, as you are always finding out what your work means through the projection it creates in a variety of settings. 

When I took Harry Duncan's typography course at the University of Iowa in 1970, I was attracted to the aesthetic and physical qualities of type, paper, binding--those manifestations of "literature" that both are and are not the essence of language art. At the same time, I was influenced by the poetic innovations that my teacher Robert Grenier was making in textual space. The underlying implication of his presumption was that a writer must be willing to claim the spatial and physical limits of his medium, lest he cede part of his creative impetus to typesetters, editors, publishers and book designers. Though I've always been generally traditional in my apprehension of the book, I eventually came to believe that the more control I could wrest over a text I made--its final realization as material text--the better I would feel about the finished product. 





I started this blog, The Compass Rose, in January 2009. Over the course of the next 9+ years, I'd compose over 900 entries, covering a wide range of subjects and preoccupations. It wouldn't have occurred to me when I began, how many there would be, or how much text I'd eventually generate. And it didn't occur to me until somewhat later, that this growing body of essays might comprise something like a meaningful whole, a statement of something like a consistent point of view. People who write diaries certainly share the same kind of accrual of material as a regular blogger does. Indeed, the diaries of famous writers constitutes a whole segment of literary remains (think of Virginia Woolf).  



As a professional bookseller specializing in rare first editions and desirable collectible copies, I routinely see elegant and custom printings and bindings. There are kinds for every taste, though paper and leather and cloth and glue are not, in and of themselves, magnetic objects, even if cleverly put together. Though I well appreciate the true antiquarian item, perhaps bound in sheepskin vellum or treated kid, my taste also extends to contemporary book art. 





When it first occurred to me to make a selection of my blog essays for publication, I imagined that the resulting volume would be perhaps 500 pages. That seemed to be a fitting dimension, and I set out to edit the 900+ essays I'd posted online over the years. I had vague notions of order and preference, but as this process progressed, it became harder and harder to whittle it down. That single volume grew to 700, then 800 pages, but in due course it became clear that a second volume would be necessary. There are some 200 essays in the set, about 20% of the total number posted online. I was somewhat astounded at the number of pages (or words) this represented. If someone had suggested to me when I was a younger man, to set out to make a ten thousand page document--of any description--this would have been daunting. Yet the actual work, spread out over a decade, was not taxing.      




Just as I had known when I started the blog, that I wanted to extend its range of subject matter broadly enough to encompass many different aspects of culture, I wanted the book version to reflect that same eclectic mix. The Compass Rose was not a literary blog, per se. It had no specific target audience, though those who shared my history as a sometime contemporary poet, would clearly find things familiar or of interest. 

What major New York, or secondary literary house, would be interested in publishing a collection of casual essays by an unknown blogger living in the San Francisco Bay Area? I had thought a great deal about this question over the years, even before the digital age began in earnest. Popular book markets have undergone some changes over the last half century, but the presumption of official taste-making still hangs over our literary culture. I've dealt with this question in one of the essays included in this set, "Vanity, Saith the Preacher, Vanity"--which addresses the question of private, author-generated publication. Indeed, the internet itself has opened a whole sphere of "publication" beyond the control or approval of the old publishers' establishment of printers, editors and agents. My blog is one manifestation of that new window, the World Wide Web of media transmission. Is it self-delusion for any writer or artist to believe that fronting the presentation of one's work, without the intercession of a professional publisher or exhibitor, might be a worthy exploit?
      


How many deserving toilers have been discouraged by the army of editors and agents, overcome by a wave of rejection? How many works of genius have fallen into obscurity or disposal through misguided or naive criteria? Perhaps such questions are really defenses fronting the armies of mediocrity which are constantly striving for acceptance or legitimacy.     


While the writings contained in this 1500 page collection are for the most part traditional in manner and subject, their medium is not.  I'm unaware of any other books of blog essays on the market. Certainly there are non-fiction collections of works that appeared first as newspaper or magazine pieces--I'm reading one right now by Janet Malcolm. What strikes me about many of these more "public" efforts is their marked similarity to what I've been doing online. The internet has been, as much as anything else, a democratizing influence upon the culture, allowing thousands, if not millions of "ordinary people" to "publish" their speech or writing out in the open, where anyone with a computer can access them. It's leveled the playing-field of what was once a closely monitored game.   


You could describe this publication as a proprietary entity, as it's limited to just 200 copies, 5 of which are hardbound (the rest paperbacks as shown here). The binding is an hybrid black cloth-facing stiff paper, which is resistant to wrinkling or curling. I had originally planned to print the titles and so forth directly on to the acetate dust wrappers, but that became impractical. The edition was printed by Edition One in Berkeley, on coated paper (which enabled me to reproduce the illustrations (many in full color) with complete fidelity. This meant heavier volumes in the hand, but a high quality art book feel. 


Distribution will essentially be private. I'll give copies away to those who may have expressed interest, or whom I think might find it diverting. Nominally priced at $100, I doubt anyone would seriously consider paying for it. Which is all fine with me. It's an act of pure indulgence. One thing I noticed in the editing process, is that the contents as a whole tells enough about my life that it might be described as a back-handed autobiography, especially the introductory preface "As if the World Made Sense." 





As I say in the preface, I've always liked books--the material text--as opposed to recorded speech or digital display. Ironically, the book couldn't have been as efficiently (or reasonably) produced without the contemporary digital printing technology. That made the production of my book of photographs* possible, as well as The Recklessness of Not Being Mistaken.  People ask me what the title means. It's taken from a poem I wrote over 45 years ago, a series of line fragments written in a disconnected sequence. To me, it's another way of saying that no matter how sure you may be about something, there's always the possibility that you're wrong--a kind of conscience, I guess--and that you may embarrass yourself with excess presumption. 

We can never be 100% convinced of anything, so it pays to reserve some modesty for the time when you may be proven wrong. Was it a mistake to publish this collection of casual, occasional blog essays? Maybe. But the pleasure I derive(d) from the exercise more than makes up for the risk of making a fool of myself. Go, big book.  

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*See my blog announcement for my previously published book, Photographs 1986-1996, Compass Rose Books, Kensington, 2017.  






A Boy's Life

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A Boy's Life


"Just wait 'til you see her in the water."


                

Putting the toy sailboat together was Sunday’s job—
The Hardy Boys rolled up their sleeves, saying “Cleora
Will really appreciate this” and glued
The slats of blond balsa neatly in place. It’s that greenhouse
Era, German teenagers with too much time on their hands,
So rockets shoot up, murdering the neighbor cat.
In those days I still believed in prose, like
A telescope receding inexorably into my past.
A thin coat of water-sealer, then two coats of 
Bleeding enamel, and the thing is seaworthy.


An Opportune Reflection

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The complete text of the "You have meddled with the primal forces of nature" speech from the movie Network [1976]. Was there ever a more pertinent summary of the world economy than this one?



"You have meddled with the primal forces of nature, Mr. Beale, and I won't have it! Is that clear?! Do you think you've merely stopped a business deal? That is not the case. The Arabs have taken billions of dollars out of this country, and now they must put it back! It is ebb and flow, tidal gravity! It is ecological balance! You are an old man who thinks in terms of nations and peoples. There are no nations. There are no peoples. There are no Russians. There are no Arabs. There are no third worlds. There is no West. There is only one holistic system of systems, one vast and immane, interwoven, interacting, multi-variate, multi-national dominion of dollars. Petro-dollars, electro-dollars, multi-dollars, reichmarks, rins, rubles, pounds, and shekels. It is the international system of currency which determines the totality of life on this planet. That is the natural order of things today. That is the atomic and sub-atomic and galactic structure of things today! And you have meddled with the primal forces of nature, and You Will Atone

Am I getting through to you, Mr. Beale? You get up on your little twenty-one inch screen and howl about America and democracy. There is no America. There is no democracy. There is only IBM and ITT and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today. What do you think the Russians talk about in their councils of state - Karl Marx? They get out their linear programming charts, statistical decision theories, minimax solutions, and compute the price-cost probabilities of their transactions and investments, just like we do. We no longer live in a world of nations and ideologies, Mr. Beale. The world is a college of corporations, inexorably determined by the immutable by-laws of business. The world is a business, Mr. Beale. It has been since man crawled out of the slime. And our children will live, Mr. Beale, to see that perfect world in which there's no war or famine, oppression or brutality. One vast and ecumenical holding company, for whom all men will work to serve a common profit, in which all men will hold a share of stock, all necessities provided, all anxieties tranquilized, all boredom amused. And I have chosen you, Mr. Beale, to preach this evangel. (Beale: "Why me?") Because you're on television, dummy. Sixty million people watch you every night of the week, Monday through Friday. (Beale: "I have seen the face of God.") You just might be right, Mr. Beale."


Wait Until Next Year

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The prospects for the San Francisco Giants in the coming year (2020) appear dismal.

General Manager Farhan Zaidi, hired prior to the 2019 season after stints with the Dodgers (4 years) and the Oakland A's (2 years), appears not to have a coherent plan to turn our ailing franchise around, after five years of frustration, following the three championship years (2010, 2012 and 2014).

There are various theories about how to build a competitive ball club. Before free agency, teams had much more control of their destinies, since players couldn't move freely among teams, weighing competing offers and situations with abandon. Nowadays, general managers have to juggle and improvise each season, moving players around, filling holes, placing bets on free agents while breeding new talent from the minors.  

There are basically only three ways to acquire new (or proven) talent: Through the farm system, developing players, usually hired out of college; through free agent signings; or through trades. The Giants once had one of the best farm systems in the majors, but over the years, it has had its ups and downs. The Giants system produced Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Madison Bumgarner, Pablo Sandoval, Tim Lincecum, Sergio Romo, Matt Cain, Brian Wilson, Brandon Belt, and Joe Panik. All these players contributed to the Giants three championship runs.

But that was six years ago. In the years since, the Giants haven't produced a single star player from their own farm system. In the last 10 years, however, they've signed a number of free agents, many of whom have made excellent contributions: Aubrey Huff, Freddy Sanchez, Juan Uribe, Andres Torres, Edgar Renteria, Cody Ross, Jeremy Affeldt, Javier Lopez, Ryan Volgelsong, Hunter Pence, Gregor Blanco, Marco Scutaro, Angel Pagan, Tim Hudson, Johnny Cueto, Eduardo Nunez, Denard Span, Jeff Samardzija, Evan Longoria, Will Smith, Kevin Pillar, Stephen Vogt, Alex Dickerson.

There's always a risk in paying big cash for high-profile free agents, that they may have a career turn, become injured, or fail to fit into the team's "chemistry." Certainly, in retrospect, the Giants' investment in free agents was the key to their five year run of success.

The failure of the Giants farm system to produce more talent in the last five years suggests that trying to engineer a new contending team "from the inside" is probably not prudent.

What is Zaidi's strategy to return the club to contention? He let Kevin Pillar (their best-hitting outfielder), Will Smith (their All Star closer), Stephen Vogt (their excellent hitting 2nd string catcher), and Madison Bumgarner (their ace starter) depart through free agency, refusing to offer competing offers for any of them. Ordinarily, this would suggest that he has a longer-term strategy, that there are players waiting in the wings from the minors, ready to move up and take the places of the departed or declining veterans. But the Giants recent rookie arrivistes haven't convinced anyone that there is a "secret" pool of young talent to draw upon.

The Giants signed Pence and Sandoval, two players from the glory years, both now, without much argument, past their prime, and useful only as platoon players or pinch-hitters. The addition of Wilmer Flores--much touted in the media this week--seems a pathetic gesture towards the fan-base. The Dodgers, meanwhile, went out and acquired Mookie Betts, whose hot bat, power and speed is sure to pump up LA's already potent line-up.

The passive reaction to the departure of Bumgarner seems the most troubling. In previous posts, I've predicted great things for the big raw-boned Deep South Lefty, whose two years of injury-plagued performance have not dimmed my enthusiasm for his potentials. In an earlier era, he would certainly have followed a pattern similar to Warren Spahn's, whose durability produced Hall of Fame numbers.  It's hard to imagine a more counter-productive and short-sighted decision, than to have let him go, given his likely future. It will turn out to be one of the great tragic bad transactions in history. I predict MadBum will win 100 games for the Diamondbacks.

This week, MLB.com posted an article about the "Top 100 Players" in major league baseball. Not one of this 100 was a Giant. Not Posey, not anyone. 30 teams, 100 players--an average of 3 players per team. Would Bumgarner have qualified if he hadn't signed with Arizona? 

Zaidi's big moves in the offseason? Hunter Pence, Pablo Sandoval, Zack Cozart, Will Wilson, and . . . Wilmer Flores! But perhaps the biggest move was forcing Bruce Bochy out--the same manager who engineered the team's three world championships. Presumably, Zaidi had something in mind there, but what?

Do the Giants presently have any player who could conceivably qualify for the All Star Team this season? Their rotation will be "led by Jeff Samardzija." Jeff Samardzija? The Jeff Samardzija who has one (one!) winning season in 14? Who led the league in losses in 2017 with 15? 

Johnny Cueto will returning from Tommy John surgery this year, so he'll be in the mix, but who knows whether he'll ever completely recover. He's nothing but a question-mark now. 

The Giants "power vacuum"--which has persisted every year since Bonds retired--is as much a concern as ever. So bad, in fact, that the team finally decided to move the right field wall in several feet. Year after year, the team fails to find a right-handed power hitter. Evan Longoria was presumably brought in to do that, but he's only a shadow of the slugger he once was. 

Posey, Belt, Crawford, Longoria--each seems to have settled into the "journeyman's" mediocrity, just good enough to start, but not to win. 

This team looks to be in trouble, and management seems to be without answers. If Zaidi's planning to build from the farm system, he might have to start with the farm system itself, which hasn't produced a star pitcher or hitter in a decade. Aside from late-comer Mike Yastrzemski, there hasn't been a new bright light on this team for several years. 

Zaidi's tenure as Giants GM is beginning to look very peculiar. Almost as if those funky rumors about his being a spy for the Dodgers might actually be true. 

In the age of homers and strike-outs, the Giants are regressing, looking very much like a team which is trying to save money by fielding a cheap product. Could a team actually end up last in homers, runs scored, RBI's, stolen bases, and ERA in the same year? 

This team might very well do it.   

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Back in 2013, I wrote about the Boy Scouts of America's decision to allow Gay boys to enter its ranks. 

As I said then, I was never a Boy Scout, and I have no stake one way or the other about its reputation or continued existence. But I questioned the advisability of, in effect, asking very young boys to consider and declare their sexuality, at an age when such questions should be regarded as premature at best, and potentially corrupting at worst. My argument then was about the jeopardy of participants, of a public organization devoted to moral integrity and conduct, being forced to facilitate an agenda whose mandate was directly opposed its founding principles. 



The Illustration from my May 24th, 2013 post

Today, the media is a-flurry with reports of a new wave of negative publicity and court filings against the Scouts, centered around the revelation in court of internal Scout documents detailing over twelve thousand victims of abuse by some 8000 scout leaders, dating back to 1944, which the organization has managed to keep from public knowledge and view. The Scouts apparently kept a so-called "perversion file" of deposed leaders, which it didn't release either. 

The wave of 300 court cases representing some 3000 abuse clients has now prompted the Boy Scouts to declare bankruptcy, in an effort to shield itself from the anticipated court judgments against it. Like the Roman Catholic Church, which evaded responsibility for the sexual abuse of boys by priests over the decades, the Boy Scouts now finds its very continued existence threatened. 



 


Founded in 1910, over the years the Boy Scouts of America has expanded to include up to 2.3 million youth, girls as well as boys, and is coordinated with the assistance of 900,000 adult volunteers. The Scouts were originally founded "to teach patriotism, courage, self-reliance, and kindred values" to boys. However, changes have been made to the Scouts, starting with a new name, Scouts BSA, and its values and guidelines have been altered in the ensuing decades. In 2013 it lifted restriction on sexual orientation and in 2015 lifted its ban on allowing gay scoutmasters--despite the organization's history of sexual abuse--involuntarily, via litigation. 

The corrupting influences on this venerable old boys' club are like a bad dream come true. One can only imagine the sort of sex talks that might take place in today's scouting world, of gay (or lesbian?) scoutmasters informing young boys that all sexual behavior is morally neutral, and that expressing or believing in "homophobic' attitudes is wrong. Would this also mean that homosexual behavior by boys while in scouting ventures would be condoned? Or that sexual contact between homosexual scoutmasters and "willing" boy-partners would be tolerated, even encouraged? 


20 years ago, who would have been able to predict such eventualities, or to imagine that society would be persuaded to adopt them? 

The Art Dump [2]

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Back in April 2014, I wrote a blog piece about abstraction in art, prompted by my finding what seemed to be a stray painter's plywood covered with random spills and can impressions. That got me wondering about the critical meditations people often have written, about the meaning and significance of non-representational art over the last half century or so. Last week three more such plywood pieces appeared at the dump, though these obviously had been "intended" as art. The pieces were unsigned, and I had the feeing their owner had just decided they were either worthless, or had grown tired of having them around the house. Could the owner have been the artist? Hard to say. 







Though these are clearly "reasoned" attempts at creating a semi-organized field of color design, they feel weak and "random" in a way that true Abstract Expressionist paintings don't. I've included a couple of Jackson Pollock's horizontal canvases to compare--






Since the early 1950's, there have probably been countless imitations produced by lesser artists coming late to the party, genuinely attempting to explore or exploit the possibilities first posited by the Ab Ex movement. Most will have been ignored or treated the derision commonly accorded to those who appropriate, borrow, or simply steal ideas from superior hands. Some have probably been encouraged by their contemporaries. 

The debate over the value and purpose of making representational versus non-representational art has been going on for at least a century. "Realistic" depictions of scenes or figures rarely rise to the level of photographic accuracy or candidness, though the recognizable aspects of what we know from our own eyes may be re-organized or augmented through the creative use of arrangement or design. Renaissance painters focused largely on classical or religious subject matter, seldom or rarely on day-to-day scenes of the life they experienced in their immediate reality. 

Textures and compositions composed primarily of masses of matter are certainly as common to our apprehension as familiar objects, such as faces, structures, events, etc. The image of a rock face, a length of fabric, a folded field, a curling ocean wave, or a piece of weathered wood should be as common to our awareness of the visual spectrum as the "theater" of narratives that constitute the "story" of history, or the tapestry of nature. And yet we're never quite sure how to place them in the pantheon of valuation that preoccupies those for whom such matters are crucial. There is the restless urge to put things in their place, to gauge them and evaluate their importance within the historical time-line of our timed descent. 

As man arose from mere subsistence to the settled leisure of making representations with a permanence beyond the merely ephemeral, we began to wonder what it was for. The history of art is a very large topic, and who would pretend to comprehend it all? What seems certain is that the act of making an artifact, the impulse and attraction of doing so, was never more in doubt than when plastic artists began to challenge the notion of "copying" nature, and to imagine alternatives to the depiction of things that might stand as examples or metaphorical versions of recognizable things, with names and templates that viewers could easily accept. 

The Dada-ists, Surrealists, and later Abstract Expressionists challenged the connection between representation and denotation, freeing artists from the duty of the familiar function of illustration, de-coupling meaning from its object-status, investing the artifact with an integrity it had never before enjoyed. 

If mere "design"--squiggles and loops and shadows and points and blobs--might constitute the whole content of a single work, then almost any surface might qualify as directed seeing, as an aesthetic act. Indeed, the very act of making a work of art could itself become the whole point, its process and duration and immersion in dimensions. Accidents, failures, dead-ends . . . all these things might, through the redefinition of the act, become values, or valued entities.  

The question seems to revolve around the notion of a time-line of successive plateaus or pinnacles of definition. After Abstract Expressionism, what would be, what could be, the natural progression of aesthetic development? We had Pop, Op, Performance, Post-Modernism, etc. Each age trying to figure itself out, to put a name or a meaning to the haphazard, piecemeal outpouring of stuff. 

If we could establish that the top three canvases had in fact been painted in 1935, would their discovery, now, suggest that the accepted record of the evolution of aesthetic thinking had been skewed, simply wrong? Are the early Renaissance painters pathetic beside the ancient Greek sculptors, who created magnificent, accurate, and deliberate versions of the things of this world? Have we, in the last 150 years, "learned" to regard representation as an obsolete act of slavish devotion, akin to a belief in superstitions and prejudices, neither more nor less entitled than the elaborate finger-painting of the major abstractionists?  

Pandemics and the Future of Mankind

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Yesterday evening I received a link from William Easton to an article in the online science site Nautilus. The article consists primarily of an interview with an epidemiologist named Dennis Carroll, who has spent several years studying diseases, and has some disquieting things to tell us. I've reproduced the article below, and followed it with my own personal response. This is a subject I've been following for some years, even before the incidence of recent viral strains in the last 15 years. 

The Man Who Saw the Pandemic Coming
Will the world now wake up to the global threat of zoonotic diseases?

By Kevin Berger
March 12, 2020

Dennis Carroll doesn’t mean to sound callous when he says the coronavirus outbreak was predictable. And he doesn’t. He sounds sympathetic to people frightened by the outbreak. He has been an eyewitness to people around the world suffering from similar viruses. Most of all, Carroll sounds authoritative.


For decades, Carroll has been a leading voice about the threat of zoonotic spillover, the transmission of pathogens from nonhuman animals to us. Scientists are confident the current outbreak, which began in Wuhan, China, stemmed from a virus inherent in bats. In 2009, after years of studying infectious diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Carroll formed a USAID program called PREDICT, where he guided trailblazing research into viruses hiding, and waiting to emerge, in animals around the world.

“Dennis is a visionary,” says Christine K. Johnson, an epidemiologist at the One Health Institute at the University of California, Davis, where she is a professor in the School of Veterinary Medicine. “He took the reactive approach to infectious diseases and turned it on its head. He said, ‘We’re going to work on a proactive approach to help countries prepare for the emergence of infectious diseases.’” Johnson, an investigator at PREDICT for 10 years, says Carroll was a pioneer in looking beyond livestock. “Dennis saw that emerging infectious diseases, far and wide, have mostly come from wildlife, and there needed to be investment in research in the wildlife sector.” For a decade, PREDICT received annual federal funding of $15 to $20 million. In 2019, its funding wasn’t renewed. Carroll left USAID and formed a new program, the Global Virome Project, “to build on PREDICT’s scientific insights and experience,” he says. In conversation, scientific insights, based on his experience, emerge from Carroll with a sting, whether he’s talking about the biology of viruses or the stagnant response to the outbreak from the White House. I began by asking about the source of the outbreak.

How did the current coronavirus pass from a bat to humans?

We don’t know specifically, but presumably the virus was being shed by the animal in the market, and humans were proximal. Or it could have been that people were directly handling the animal. There may have been a secondary source. In the 2002 SARS outbreak in China, we didn’t see people’s direct exposure to bats as the source of infection. There was a secondary source, a wildlife animal, the civet cat.


Could the transmission have resulted from people eating the wildlife?

Typically the preparation of the animal is where you have exposure. By the time it’s cooked and prepared, the virus would have been dead. It’s more common that transmission is through the animal shedding or people slaughtering the animal, when they’re exposed to bodily fluids, blood, and secretions. With the avian influenza from poultry, a lot of the exposure and infections go back to the preparation of chicken for cooking. In Egypt, for instance, when you look at who was infected, more common than not it was a woman, directly responsible for slaughtering and preparing the animal.


In 2018, you and colleagues wrote in Science, “Our ability to mitigate disease emergence is undermined by our poor understanding of the diversity and ecology of viral threats.” What do we need to understand about the diversity and ecology of viral threats?

The first thing to understand is that whatever future threats we’re going to face already exist; they are currently circulating in wildlife. Think of it as viral dark matter. A large pool of viruses are circulating and we don’t become familiar with them until we see a spillover event and people getting ill.


Do bats have a particularly high potential for spillover?

Certainly. We’ve been able to identify bats as reservoirs for coronaviruses and documented specific bat populations as reservoirs for Ebola virus. We want to understand how each of these bats operate within an ecosystem. Do they have certain behaviors and practices that either keep them remote from or proximal to human populations? The bat population in which we isolated the Ebola virus in West Africa was a species of bat that also tends to co-roost within human housing, so it elevates the opportunity for spillover.


Have there been disturbances in their environments that have brought bats closer to us?

The disturbances in their environments are us. We’ve penetrated deeper into ecozones we’ve not occupied before.


What’s a telling example of our incursion?

In Africa, we see a lot of incursion driven by oil or mineral extraction in areas that typically had few human populations. The problem is not only moving workers and establishing camps in these domains, but building roads that allow for even more movement of populations. Roads also allow for the movement of wildlife animals, which may be part of a food trade, to make their way into urban settlements. All these dramatic changes increase the potential spread of infection.


Are spillover events more common now than 50 years ago?

Yes. EcoHealth Alliance, an NGO, and others, looked at all reported outbreaks since 1940. They came to a fairly solid conclusion that we’re looking at an elevation of spillover events two to three times more than what we saw 40 years earlier. That continues to increase, driven by the huge increase in the human population and our expansion into wildlife areas. The single biggest predictor of spillover events is land-use change—more land going to agriculture and more specifically to livestock production.


Is there something specific about a virus that makes it zoonotic?

You can argue viruses aren’t living organisms. They’re sheets of proteins encapsulating some DNA or RNA. Beyond that, they have no machinery to be able to live on their own. They’re looking for an ecosystem that has all of the other cellular machinery essential for replication. They can’t live outside another animal population. They need that animal to replicate. And we’re just one more animal. We think of ourselves as something special. But viruses are infecting us with exactly the same purpose they infect a bat or a civet cat.


Viruses live on a delicate balance, don’t they? They have to be able to thrive without killing their host.

Right. The ones that kill off their host quickly will disappear. With the SARS virus, it’s no surprise that killing 10 percent of its host, it wasn’t able to establish itself as a pandemic virus on this planet.


Are there any signs that this coronavirus will kill itself?

This one has a lower pathogenicity. The lower its virulence, the more likely it’ll become part of an endemic, part of a seasonal event. That’s one of the big things that’s going to be a worry. If it does go quiet over the summer months, then the question’s going to be, “Is it still infecting people?” We could be walking around in the middle of summer with influenza viruses, but they’re not active. They’ve just gone quiet. When the right ecology comes into play, it starts getting cold, and damp, then it starts replicating like crazy. If it’s able to park itself, and not kill its host over the summer months, then we’ve got a virus that has all the telltale signatures of establishing itself as part of our normative landscape, much to our detriment.


Do you think the current outbreak was inevitable?

Oh, sure. It was predictable. It’s like if you had no traffic laws and were constantly finding pedestrians getting whacked by cars as they crossed the street. Is that surprising? No. All you need to do is to better manage how we set up crosswalks, how we establish traffic rules and regulations. We’re not doing that. We’re not establishing the kind of safe practices that will minimize the opportunity for spillover. If we better understood where these viruses are circulating and understood that ecology, we would have the potential to disrupt and minimize the risk of spillover.


Why aren’t we—governments and policymakers—doing that?

First, this is an expanding problem driven by unprecedented population change. It’s only in the last 100 years that we’ve begun adding people at a rate that’s causing this incredible disruption of the larger ecosystem. If you and I were having this discussion 100 years ago, there were 6 billion fewer people on this planet. It took us the better part of our total existence of the species, 300,000 years, before we hit the 1 billion mark. But in 100 years we’ve added 6 billion people and we’ll add another 4 to 5 billion before the end of this century.

Second, governments and society by and large are governed by inertia. We don’t change and adapt and evolve very quickly. And we’re barely cognizant as a global society that the world we’re living in today is fundamentally different than the world our species has ever lived in. You know that old saw that if you drop a frog in a pot of boiling water, it will leap out. But if you take that same frog and put it in a pot of ambient water and slowly crank up the temperature, it will stay in that water and boil to death. It loses perspective on the changing environment around it. We’re that frog in the ambient water. We’re oblivious to the conditions that have enabled zoonotic viruses to become integrated into us.


What first really opened your eyes to the scale of the spillover problem?

You mean my Saul on the road to Damascus moment?


Exactly.

It was avian influenza in the 2000s. What you saw with avian influenza was a direct consequence of how much poultry was being produced to feed people. If you look at China today, it produces something on the order of 15 to 20 billion poultry per year. But if you went back and you looked at the data from the 1960s, you see that, at best, only a few hundred million poultry were under production. When you look in Bangladesh, Vietnam, and elsewhere in Asia and Indonesia, you see that the amount of poultry that was being produced 50 years ago was orders of magnitude less than poultry being produced today. That’s a consequence of more people and more purchasing power. One of the things we know about household purchasing power is that when you have disposable income in your hands, you’re going to move from a root- or grain-based diet and try to get animal protein. And that’s what happened.


One statistic that jumps out of what you wrote in Science is there are 1.67 million viruses on Earth and an estimated 631,000 to 827,000 have the capacity to infect people. That’s pretty frightening, no?

On one level it is pretty frightening. But on another level the potential to infect doesn’t necessarily correlate with illness and death. Some viruses may not have any consequence at all. And some may be involved in enhancing our own biology. They could become part of our microbiome. It’s nothing new in the course of evolution. We have to be open to the idea that viruses aren’t simply our enemies, that they may have an important and positive role to play for us. We found that out about bacteria. At the same time, we have to keep our eyes open and be cautious about the pharmaceuticals we take. If we’re taking broad-spectrum antivirals, they could be opening up other complications.


How would you describe the general attitude of the United States government toward the threat of zoonotic diseases?

It’s not just the U.S. government but governments at large and the private sector—we don’t invest in risk. Talking about zoonotic diseases is different than talking about tuberculosis or malaria. Those are tangible. They are clear and present problems. Zoonotic diseases are an emerging problem. But we as a society don’t invest in things that are not kicking our door down.


The coronavirus is kicking our door down now, don’t you think?

Yes, it’s got everyone’s attention. But this coronavirus will fall off the headlines and when it does, you will see a contraction in the kind of investments that are made in it. We have war budgets and then no monies during peacetime. So part of the challenge—it’s a social engineering exercise—is getting lawmakers and investors to invest in risk. That’s really difficult.

The fact that your PREDICT program was not refunded has become a political rallying point against President Trump, who has shown an ignorance of science. Do you think there’s a connection between the end of PREDICT and what has happened with the coronavirus?

No, I don’t think so. PREDICT was a beautiful project. It was scientifically well executed. It was forward-leaning. But its scale was small. It discovered slightly more than 2,000 viruses. If you’re going to have a public health impact, finding 2,000 viruses out of a pool of 600,000, over 10 years, isn’t going to transform your ability to minimize public health risk. And PREDICT didn’t really navigate the second step in a critical equation—turning science into policy. We didn’t design it for that purpose. Also, even an annual budget of $20 million is not sufficient. You’d need about $100 million a year to carry out the kind of global program that would give us evidence to transform how we think about viral risk and how we should prepare for it. That’s what my new Global Virome Project aims to do.


What worries you about this coronavirus?

There’s the obvious stuff that’s worrying everyone. But there are things not being talked about. Those are the things that worry me the most. This is a global event. It is going to hit every community everywhere in the world. And the impact will not be equally distributed because there are parts of the world that have health care systems that are far more fragile than ours or China’s or Europe’s. We know that when fragile healthcare systems have extraordinary new demands put on them, there’s an enormous risk those health systems will collapse. Specifically in the Africa region and regions where there’s civil disorder or war.

In 2014, when the Ebola virus swept across the three countries of West Africa, we saw that one of the immediate consequences of the virus was to essentially shut down health-service delivery. Health workers became exposed, sickened, and fearful. For five months, you did not have health services that were tending to people’s normative healthcare. Pregnant women didn’t have access to trained birth attendants. Kids didn’t have access to anti-malarials. Immunizations didn’t go on. You had an undocumented population of people whose lives were compromised because they couldn’t get routine health services. My fear is this will likely play itself out again. If the coronavirus continues to be as significant as it appears to be, we’re going to see health systems get overloaded and not be capable of responding to both the virus and normative health issues. No one in government seems to be talking about this.

In 2005, during the avian influenza, George W. Bush was on the phone routinely with leaders around the world about how to coordinate a global response. Barack Obama did the same in 2009 for the second H1N1 pandemic and in 2014 for the Ebola epidemic. You saw presidential leadership step up and act as a catalyst for forging a global way forward for a global problem. It has been absolute silence in this White House. I think the only reason the White House is even paying any lip service to this is because the stock market has gone into a free fall. So they’re trying to figure out what are the words they need to say to placate the stock market.


Why do you think there’s been silence in this White House?
Because the Trump administration is only interested in America first. Populism here and across Europe and elsewhere has fragmented the global networks, which had been so instrumental in being able to bring together a global approach to problems like this. I’ve not seen any reports coming out of the White House that showed that as China was struggling to bring the virus under control, our president reached out to President Xi to talk about how to coordinate action. I’m stunned by the absolute absence of global dialogue for what is a global event. In Europe right now, you would never believe that there was a European Union. From where I sit, it looks like every country is making this up as they go along. Italy isn’t coordinating with Brussels. Brussels isn’t coordinating with Germany. There’s no coherent regional approach to this problem in Europe, even though they have a platform for doing it.


So what will it take to make people aware of the global threat of zoonotic diseases?

There’s nothing like a serial assault to heighten your awareness, and that’s what we’re looking at. We’re on a cycle of about every three years of getting something like this. And each time that happens, there’s more awareness that these investments need to be made and sustained. The problem is getting these monies as part of the annual regular non-emergency funding.


There’s been exemplary sharing of data among scientists and geneticists, don’t you think?

Yes. But think of the syllogism from Socrates: right thinking leads to right action. We know that’s not the case. Your thoughts can be absolutely right on, but your practices can be completely divergent. What science allows us to do is understand, with greater granularity, what’s at risk. Science will give us insight. But we have to translate that insight into a sustained valuation of risk and move that forward.


How, ideally, should we move forward?

These viruses inherently have the ability to mutate. What we’re looking at today isn’t necessarily what we’ll be looking at in a few months. It could become more deadly or it could attenuate and disappear, like the common cold. The big issue is, Are we tracking that? Do we have enough data and transparency and the availability of samples? What’s showing up in Iran? What’s showing up in Israel? What’s showing up in Italy? What’s showing up in the United States? Is there enough open transparency in real time that allows us to keep our finger on the pulse? I’m an internationalist. Figure out how to care for our people. Pay attention to communities around the world that need assistance. We’re all part of the same ecosystem. This is a global issue. We either prepare for it and respond to it in the context of a global lens, or we don’t. If our preparations and responses are country-centric, we’re in for some serious trouble.

_______________________



The truly frightening aspect of this very predictable and obvious interview is that its underlying warning gets so little attention: The uncontrolled increase in world population, with the attendant full-bore exploitation of eco-systems to feed it.

I’ve been saying for 40 years that humankind’s rabid expansion and accompanying devastation of the environment will have both obvious grave consequences, as well as new dangers that become more revealed over time.

Viruses are opportunistic and have time and numbers on their side. We do not have the resources to address the speed and variety of mutating pathogens which will be spawned by crowding, and by our interaction with other creatures in the biosphere. They (the bugs) hold several trump-cards. Time and numbers and a virtually unlimited adaptability.

In the end, the only way we can help ourselves is to drastically reduce world population, and reestablish some of the provincial separation more typical of our previous history on the planet. Growth of population, and growth of the pathogens — which are the outriders of civilization — go hand in hand.

Vaccines won’t solve this problem. They are temporary measures at best, and don’t solve the basic causation. There must be fewer people, less travel, and less interaction with wild and domestic nimals — especially mammals. There are no other solutions.

We must curtail reproduction, and acknowledge the harm that excess population causes. Birth is not sacred. Creation of new members is an integral factor of the unfolding drama of our place in the ecosystem. We’ve completely overshot the natural limits, and this will result in natural, probably catastrophic readjustments of our numbers, to enforce the balance we’ve upset. The more excess we create, the more will be sacrificed over time. More babies, more victims. Very simple math. Mother
Nature will be unforgiving and pitiless in her revenge for what we’ve done to her.

I foresee a long interregnum of suffering, followed by a consolidation of numbers and habits of existence, a world population stabilized at pre-19th Century levels. If we could curtail our rapacity, the technologies we’ve developed, and those we will achieve, could form the basis of a very superior existence. But people are generally stupid. We’ll have to walk through the fire first.




A New Bourbon Concoction

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A new recipe, fresh from the stainless counter . . . . 


1 3/4 parts Jack Daniels Bourbon
3/4 part sweet vermouth
1/3 part Becherovka
1 teaspoon creme de cacao


Bourbon has a fairly distinct flavor, unlike, say, Canadian whiskey. And it has traditional mixes which  have become so synonymous with it that people almost reject the different flavors that can be made out of it (as a standard dark "goods"). 

But that challenge is one I take up often--to construct different pyramids of flavor out of a somewhat cliché-driven traditional liquor.  

This one doesn't exactly conflict with the bourbon taste, but leads it gently into a less-traveled lane. 

Becherovka is considered an herbal bitters liqueur, but that is simply a way of saying that it's an alcoholic base with flavors. It can be served by itself (chilled), or with soda, or as a component in cocktails. It originates in Czechoslovakia, and has been produced there since the 19th Century. It has a slight gingery-cinnamon cast, but is more complex than that. 

Creme de Cacao is no stranger to bourbon, but the Becherovka isn't one I'd expect to be considered in the same dimension. 

Karlovy Vary, where Becherovka is produced, is a small spa-town on the western edge of Czech Republic. It was under German settlement and influence until after WWII, when the German inhabitants were expelled. I probably don't want to know any more about that episode. It's a picturesque old place, popular with tourists, and has been used for various film-shoots, including Casino Royale (the James Bond movie), and as a model for the Grand Budapest Hotel movie.   


The Old Section of Karlovy Vary

This combination probably won't catch on as a regular at anyone's tavern, and Becherovka isn't a common spirit in this country. Nevertheless, I decided to try it with bourbon and chocolate, and the resulting mix was very seductive. 

From the Gallery of Heroes - Goodwin Sammel [1925-2020]

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I just discovered that an old friend of many years passed away in January. The Berkeleyside obituary is here

I first met Goodwin in about 1963 or 4. I was just a high school junior then, visiting Berkeley friends for a weekend. My immediate family associate was managing a little coffee bar called The Florentine, on Shattuck Avenue in Berkeley. Laurette Goldberg was performing on the harpsichord there, and anyone who loved the harpsichord specifically, or keyboard performance generally, would come to hear her play. Goodwin was among them. 

By the time I met him, he had already become a well-known performer and teacher of the piano, but Goodwin was the least pretentious of men. A gentler, sweeter, more intelligent man would be difficult to find. I was just then becoming interested in classical music, and had begun to take serious lessons from another teacher in Napa, where I grew up. 

Much later, after I had returned to the Bay Area from graduate school in the Midwest, I ended up managing a pair of apartment houses right next to Goodwin's place on Francisco Street. I had a baby grand, and Goodwin could hear me playing as he walked by to his house. We rediscovered each other then, and remained in regular touch for the rest of his life. Though we moved away to Kensington in 1976, we saw him frequently in Berkeley. 

Goodwin didn't own a car, and walked everywhere. He also didn't have hot running water in his house. He had other eccentricities and habits. He always lived alone, and seemed not ever to have had a long-term relationship with anyone of either sex. He told me once that he had been a programmer in the early years with IBM, and they had offered him lots of money if he would stay on for advancement, but Goodwin had music in his soul, and he threw that career over to become a self-employed piano instructor.    



It was clear that Goodwin had honed his needs down to essentials, and he lived quite comfortably on an income that was probably much less than most people might have guessed. He dressed well, had impeccable manners, was typically deferential, but always delightfully sunny and alert. 

Well into his 80's, we would see him walking on Telegraph or Shattuck, usually with one of his wool hats, to keep the sun off. He usually didn't have a lot to say, but if you pumped him a little, he would engage with you freely on a host of subjects.   




Though I never took lessons from him, he gave me a few pieces of great advice on how to improve my playing. One I took to heart was--unlike what I had been told by other teachers--one should relax one's fingers when playing, instead of curling them rigidly and trying to maintain a fixed position over the keys. He would hold his hands, hanging from the wrist, to demonstrate this. It worked, and though I never played for him, I always appreciated the tip. 

I only heard him play once, in public, and that as an accompanist. Could he have had a successful career as a classical performer? I'm not sure. It may be that he lacked the intense drive required to compete and bear the stress of it. Perhaps it just didn't interest him. There seems little doubt that he had the facility. The life he did lead brought joy and pleasure to many people, and there are generations of students of the keyboard whom he influenced or husbanded into prominence. 

The last time I saw him--just a few weeks before he died--he was being helped out of a car in front of his house. Despite the inconvenience and embarrassment, he smiled and tilted his head ruefully, promising that he would be happy to entertain a visit when he was feeling better. 

Goodwin was a character, the sort of person you don't meet often. A very special man. I miss him.    


Expert Advice on Pandemic Life

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It seems that only yesterday, people were living their lives in a familiar way, getting and spending, walking and driving and congregating and traveling and hugging and kissing and generally acting normally in a world they understood, and moved about in naturally. Suddenly, a strange new virus turned up, almost from nowhere, and quickly revealed how fragile our world is, and how easily it can be fragmented, its fabric ripped and shredded apart. 





Indeed, life itself is quite fragile--something we've always known, if we were paying attention. In geologic time, life on earth is merely a blip on the spectrum, and we know that "extinctions" have happened before, and certainly will again. In the meantime, we are experiencing a predictable event in the history of opportunistic contagion, a mathematical certainty given the nature of microscopic contagion--the mutation of a human (or mammalian) viral parasite we've been hosting over the millennia--with whom our immune systems have been doing periodic battle. 

Immunology and epidemiology and risk assessment are complex bodies of knowledge and theory. Since they aren't fields we ordinarily pay much attention to, much of what they have to tell us is unfamiliar--something the ordinary person doesn't have the occasion or need to know. A lot of speculation and casual opinion has been spun out since the advent of the Corona Virus (or Covid 19) pandemic, much of it only partly true, and some of it simply wrong. 

The following summary of the risks of contagion was recently posted on the internet, and I can't think of a better use of a blog--any blog--than disseminating it, since it makes several pertinent points about what kinds of behaviors are dangerous, and which aren't--crucial information which we desperately need right now. Here is the link, from which I have appropriated mostly verbatim: https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

Some of what it tells us seems surprising--i.e., the considerable dispersal of exhaled breath into space, and the persistent presence of such aerosol colloid in the air we breathe in confined spaces. I for one had no idea about that. Water vapor, mostly invisible to the naked eye, surrounds us in space all the time, and serves as a passive transmitter of microbes, virtually all the time. Our awareness of this threat now takes on a new urgency, given the highly infectious nature of this new pathogen, which moves invisibly through our environment, a spooky enemy we are just beginning now to understand.  




The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them


It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That's what's going to happen with a lockdown.

As states reopen, and we give the virus more fuel, all bets are off. I understand the reasons for reopening the economy, but I've said before, if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

There are very few states that have demonstrated a sustained decline in numbers of new infections. Indeed, the majority are still increasing and reopening. As a simple example of the USA trend, when you take out the data from New York and just look at the rest of the USA, daily case numbers are increasing. Bottom line: the only reason the total USA new case numbers look flat right now is because the New York City epidemic was so large and now it is being contained.

So throughout most of the country we are going to add fuel to the viral fire by reopening. It's going to happen if I like it or not, so my goal here is to try to guide you away from situations of high risk.

Where are people getting sick?

We know most people get infected in their own home. A household member contracts the virus in the community and brings it into the house where sustained contact between household members leads to infection.

But where are people contracting the infection in the community? I regularly hear people worrying about grocery stores, bike rides, inconsiderate runners who are not wearing masks.... are these places of concern? Well, not really. Let me explain.

In order to get infected you need to get exposed to an infectious dose of the virus; based on infectious dose studies with MERS and SARS, it is estimated that as few as 1000 SARS-CoV2 viral particles are needed for an infection to take hold. Please note, this still needs to be determined experimentally, but we can use that number to demonstrate how infection can occur. Infection could occur, through 1000 viral particles you receive in one breath or from one eye-rub, or 100 viral particles inhaled with each breath over 10 breaths, or 10 viral particles with 100 breaths. Each of these situations can lead to an infection.


How much Virus is released into the environment?

Bathrooms have a lot of high touch surfaces, door handles, faucets, stall doors. So fomite transfer risk in this environment can be high. We still do not know whether a person releases infectious material in feces or just fragmented virus, but we do know that toilet flushing does aerosolize many droplets. Treat public bathrooms with extra caution (surface and air), until we know more about the risk.

A single cough releases about 3,000 droplets and droplets travels at 50 miles per hour. Most droplets are large, and fall quickly (gravity), but many do stay in the air and can travel across a room in a few seconds.

A single sneeze releases about 30,000 droplets, with droplets traveling at up to 200 miles per hour. Most droplets are small and travel great distances (easily across a room).

If a person is infected, the droplets in a single cough or sneeze may contain as many as 200,000,000 (two hundred million) virus particles which can all be dispersed into the environment around them.

A single breath releases 50 - 5000 droplets. Most of these droplets are low velocity and fall to the ground quickly. There are even fewer droplets released through nose-breathing. Importantly, due to the lack of exhalation force with a breath, viral particles from the lower respiratory areas are not expelled.

Unlike sneezing and coughing which release huge amounts of viral material, the respiratory droplets released from breathing only contain low levels of virus. We don't have a number for SARS-CoV2 yet, but we can use influenza as a guide. We know that a person infected with influenza releases about 3 - 20 virus RNA copies per minute of breathing.

Remember the formulae: Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus x Time

If a person coughs or sneezes, those 200,000,000 viral particles go everywhere. Some virus hangs in the air, some falls into surfaces, most falls to the ground. So if you are face-to-face with a person, having a conversation, and that person sneezes or coughs straight at you, it's pretty easy to see how it is possible to inhale 1,000 virus particles and become infected.

But even if that cough or sneeze was not directed at you, some infected droplets--the smallest of small--can hang in the air for a few minutes, filling every corner of a modest sized room with infectious viral particles. All you have to do is enter that room within a few minutes of the cough/sneeze and take a few breaths and you have potentially received enough virus to establish an infection.

But with general breathing, 20 copies per minute into the environment, even if every virus ended up in your lungs, you would need 1000 copies divided by 20 copies per minute = 50 minutes.

Speaking increases the release of respiratory droplets about 10 fold; ~200 copies of virus per minute. Again, assuming every virus is inhaled, it would take ~5 minutes of speaking face-to-face to receive the required dose.

The exposure to virus x time formulae is the basis of contact tracing. Anyone you spend greater than 10 minutes with in a face-to-face situation is potentially infected. Anyone who shares a space with you (say an office) for an extended period is potentially infected. This is also why it is critical for people who are symptomatic to stay home. Your sneezes and your coughs expel so much virus that you can infect a whole room of people.

What is the role of asymptomatic people in spreading the virus?

Symptomatic people are not the only way the virus is shed. We know that at least 44% of all infections--and the majority of community-acquired transmissions--occur from people without any symptoms (asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people). You can be shedding the virus into the environment for up to 5 days before symptoms begin.

Infectious people come in all ages, and they all shed different amounts of virus. The figure below shows that no matter your age (x-axis), you can have a little bit of virus or a lot of virus (y-axis).

The amount of virus released from an infected person changes over the course of infection and it is also different from person-to-person. Viral load generally builds up to the point where the person becomes symptomatic. So just prior to symptoms showing, you are releasing the most virus into the environment. Interestingly, the data shows that just 20% of infected people are responsible for 99% of viral load that could potentially be released into the environment

So now let’s get to the crux of it. Where are the personal dangers from reopening?

When you think of outbreak clusters, what are the big ones that come to mind? Most people would go to the cruise ships. But you would be wrong. Ship outbreaks don’t even land in the top 50 outbreaks to date.

Ignoring the terrible outbreaks in nursing homes, we find that the biggest outbreaks are in prisons, religious ceremonies, and workplaces, such a meat packing facilities and call centers. Any environment that is enclosed, with poor air circulation and high density of people, spells trouble.

Some of the biggest super-spreading events are:

Meat packing: In meat processing plants, densely packed workers must communicate to one another amidst the deafening drum of industrial machinery and a cold-room virus-preserving environment. There are now outbreaks in 115 facilities across 23 states, 5000+ workers infected, with 20 dead.

Weddings, funerals, birthdays: 10% of early spreading events

Business networking: Face-to-face business networking like the Biogen Conference in Boston in March.
As we move back to work, or go to a restaurant, let’s look at what can happen in those environments.

Restaurants: Some really great shoe-leather epidemiology demonstrated clearly the effect of a single asymptomatic carrier in a restaurant environment (see below). The infected person (A1) sat at a table and had dinner with 9 friends. Dinner took about 1 to 1.5 hours. During this meal, the asymptomatic carrier released low-levels of virus into the air from their breathing. Airflow (from the restaurant's various airflow vents) was from right to left. Approximately 50% of the people at the infected person's table became sick over the next 7 days. 75% of the people on the adjacent downwind table became infected. And even 2 of the 7 people on the upwind table were infected (believed to happen by turbulent airflow). No one at tables E or F became infected, they were out of the main airflow from the air conditioner on the right to the exhaust fan on the left of the room.

Workplaces: Another great example is the outbreak in a call center (see below). A single infected employee came to work on the 11th floor of a building. That floor had 216 employees. Over the period of a week, 94 of those people become infected (43.5%: the blue chairs). 92 of those 94 people became sick (only 2 remained asymptomatic). Notice how one side of the office is primarily infected, while there are very few people infected on the other side. While exact number of people infected by respiratory droplets / respiratory exposure verse fomite transmission (door handles, shared water coolers, elevator buttons etc) is unknown. It serves to highlight that being in an enclosed space, sharing the same air for a prolonged period increases your chances of exposure and infection. Another 3 people on other floors of the building were infected, but the authors were not able to trace the infection to the primary cluster on the 11th floor. Interestingly, even though there were considerable interaction between workers on different floors of the building in elevators and the lobby, the outbreak was mostly limited to a single floor. This highlights the importance of exposure and time in the spreading of SARS-CoV2.

Choir: The church choir in Washington State. Even though people were aware of the virus and took steps to minimize transfer; e.g. they avoided the usual handshakes and hugs hello, people also brought their own music to avoid sharing, and socially distanced themselves during practice. A single asymptomatic carrier infected most of the people in attendance. The choir sang for 2 1/2 hours, inside an enclosed church which was roughly the size of a volleyball court.

Singing, to a greater degree than talking, aerosolizes respiratory droplets extraordinarily well. Deep-breathing while singing facilitated those respiratory droplets getting deep into the lungs. Two and half hours of exposure ensured that people were exposed to enough virus over a long enough period of time for infection to take place. Over a period of 4 days, 45 of the 60 choir members developed symptoms, 2 died. The youngest infected was 31, but they averaged 67 years old.

Indoor sports: While this may be uniquely Canadian, a super spreading event occurred during a curling event in Canada. A curling event with 72 attendees became another hotspot for transmission. Curling brings contestants and teammates in close contact in a cool indoor environment, with heavy breathing for an extended period. This tournament resulted in 24 of the 72 people becoming infected.

Birthday parties / funerals: Just to see how simple infection-chains can be, this is a real story from Chicago. The name is fake. Bob was infected but didn't know. Bob shared a takeout meal, served from common serving dishes, with 2 family members. The dinner lasted 3 hours. The next day, Bob attended a funeral, hugging family members and others in attendance to express condolences. Within 4 days, both family members who shared the meal are sick. A third family member, who hugged Bob at the funeral became sick. But Bob wasn't done. Bob attended a birthday party with 9 other people. They hugged and shared food at the 3 hour party. Seven of those people became ill. Over the next few days Bob became sick, he was hospitalized, ventilated, and died.

But Bob's legacy lived on. Three of the people Bob infected at the birthday went to church, where they sang, passed the tithing dish etc. Members of that church became sick. In all, Bob was directly responsible for infecting 16 people between the ages of 5 and 86. Three of those 16 died.

The spread of the virus within the household and back out into the community through funerals, birthdays, and church gatherings is believed to be responsible for the broader transmission of COVID-19 in Chicago.
Sobering right?

Commonality of outbreaks
The reason to highlight these different outbreaks is to show you the commonality of outbreaks of COVID-19. All these infection events were indoors, with people closely-spaced, with lots of talking, singing, or yelling. The main sources for infection are home, workplace, public transport, social gatherings, and restaurants. This accounts for 90% of all transmission events. In contrast, outbreaks spread from shopping appear to be responsible for a small percentage of traced infections.

Importantly, of the countries performing contact tracing properly, only a single outbreak has been reported from an outdoor environment (less than 0.3% of traced infections).

So back to the original thought of my post.

Indoor spaces, with limited air exchange or recycled air and lots of people, are concerning from a transmission standpoint. We know that 60 people in a volleyball court-sized room (choir) results in massive infections. Same situation with the restaurant and the call center. Social distancing guidelines don't hold in indoor spaces where you spend a lot of time, as people on the opposite side of the room were infected.

The principle is viral exposure over an extended period of time. In all these cases, people were exposed to the virus in the air for a prolonged period (hours). Even if they were 50 feet away (choir or call center), even a low dose of the virus in the air reaching them, over a sustained period, was enough to cause infection and in some cases, death.

Social distancing rules are really to protect you with brief exposures or outdoor exposures. In these situations there is not enough time to achieve the infectious viral load when you are standing 6 feet apart or where wind and the infinite outdoor space for viral dilution reduces viral load. The effects of sunlight, heat, and humidity on viral survival, all serve to minimize the risk to everyone when outside.

When assessing the risk of infection (via respiration) at the grocery store or mall, you need to consider the volume of the air space (very large), the number of people (restricted), how long people are spending in the store (workers - all day; customers - an hour). Taken together, for a person shopping: the low density, high air volume of the store, along with the restricted time you spend in the store, means that the opportunity to receive an infectious dose is low. But, for the store worker, the extended time they spend in the store provides a greater opportunity to receive the infectious dose and therefore the job becomes more risky.

Basically, as the work closures are loosened, and we start to venture out more, possibly even resuming in-office activities, you need to look at your environment and make judgments. How many people are here, how much airflow is there around me, and how long will I be in this environment. If you are in an open floorplan office, you really need critically assess the risk (volume, people, and airflow). If you are in a job that requires face-to-face talking or even worse, yelling, you need to assess the risk.

If you are sitting in a well ventilated space, with few people, the risk is low.

If I am outside, and I walk past someone, remember it is “dose and time” needed for infection. You would have to be in their airstream for 5+ minutes for a chance of infection. While joggers may be releasing more virus due to deep breathing, remember the exposure time is also less due to their speed.

While I have focused on respiratory exposure here, please don't forget surfaces. Those infected respiratory droplets land somewhere. Wash your hands often and stop touching your face!

As we are allowed to move around our communities more freely and be in contact with more people in more places more regularly, the risks to ourselves and our family are significant. Even if you are gung-ho for reopening and resuming business as usual, do your part and wear a mask to reduce what you release into the environment. It will help everyone, including your own business. This article was inspired by a piece written by Jonathan Kay in Quillete.

Erin S. Bromage, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Biology at the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth. Dr. Bromage graduated from the School of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences James Cook University, Australia where his research focused on the epidemiology of, and immunity to, infectious disease in animals. His Post-Doctoral training was at the College of William and Mary, Virginia Institute of Marine Science in the Comparative Immunology Laboratory of late Dr. Stephen Kaattari. Dr. Bromage’s research focuses on the evolution of the immune system, the immunological mechanisms responsible for protection from infectious disease, and the design and use of vaccines to control infectious disease in animals. He also focuses on designing diagnostic tools to detect biological and chemical threats in the environment in real-time.Dr. Bromage joined the Faculty of the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth in 2007 where he teaches course in Immunology and Infectious Disease, including a course this semester on the Ecology of Infectious Disease which focused on the emerging SARS-CoV2 outbreak in China.


Academic Standards and Social Engineering

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San Francisco Chronicle for Thursday, May 21, 2020: University of California system will no longer require SAT, ACT for admissions. During a teleconference meeting Thursday, the board approved UC president Janet Napolitano's plan to make submitting standardized test scores optional for students applying for admission in the fall of 2021 or 2022. Students can still submit scores that will be considered in the admissions process, but those who choose not to submit scores will not be penalized. In 2023 and 2024, the system will become "test blind" and students will only submit scores for scholarship or course-placement purposes. In 2025, the system will either create a new UC-specific standardized test “that better aligns with the content UC expects applicants to have learned and with UC’s values” or eliminate testing requirements altogether. The UC system already dropped the standardized test requirement for students applying for admission in the fall of 2021 due to disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Critics of standardized testing allege the requirements disadvantage students of underprivileged socioeconomic backgrounds, and the UC policy change could be the first of many at colleges — both public and private — nationwide.


Advocates of social justice and quotas in student admissions have been trying for years to find ways around the academic criteria for admission of applicants, in order to admit minority students whose credentials are inferior. The debate over whether intelligence and aptitude tests actually measure raw intelligence has been going on for just as long. Evaluating reading and mathematics and abstract reasoning skills is generally the only way to test these abilities, but it's obvious enough that if you've never read much, or taken mathematics courses, you're not likely to test well in these areas. So how DOES one measure the likely aptitude of those applying for admission to college degree programs? 

But the simple fact is that students who want to study at a college or university need to have the necessary background in these spheres of knowledge in order to be successful at the college level. It's all very well to claim--honestly or not--that minority students have been "disadvantaged" by their upbringing and social background. But college and university educational systems are not in the business of choosing people for their raw intelligence and possible "potential" over time. And it certainly isn't their business to be rectifying society's ills by de-naturing academic criteria in order to admit applicants who are not qualified academically. The notion that claims of "entitlement" (based on race and ethnic background) should be overweighted in the selection process is social engineering at its very worst. 

How insulting is it to minority applicants to be told that they can't be expected to compete in the same arena as others? That they are incapable of meeting the same challenges and requirements? That there is something in their culture, their racial background, that prevents them from aspiring to the same success in life as others?


The City Desk - Three New Concoctions

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Who drinks cocktails anymore?

It must be a dying art.

Only the straggling ragtag crew of septuagenarians, of which I'm an honorable member, perhaps.

Each day affords another opportunity to expand the endless string of new combinations, in the ever-mutating mélange of taste.

In these strange times, each of us must make do with what is available, now that the pandemic has shortened everyone's leash, and just going to the corner store has become an adventure. 

As my liquor cabinet shrinks I recall fondly the times when I could wander freely through the aisles of Bev-Mo, 



or scan the thousand labels at Ledger's Liquors on University Avenue. 



Though drinking is often posed as a social phenomenon, being confined in this era of "sheltering in" could be another excuse to celebrate the happy hour at home. It's also cheaper. The going rate for custom cocktails these days usually runs north of $12. If you can afford your own liquor cabinet, you can mix one for less than $3 apiece! I'd expect to pay at least $15 for a good recipe in any high end cocktail bar today, and sometimes as much as $20.  

Lately I've been meditating on the difference between serving drinks "up" or over the rocks. What, exactly, is this variation in service supposed to accomplish? Drinks served over the rocks tend to keep their chill longer, though they usually become somewhat dilute as you drink them as the ice melts. Drink menus for on the rocks usually tell you to stir the ingredients, or simply to pour them into the ice glass. Shaking ingredients in a mixer imparts an effervescence to the mix which may or may not be regarded as appropriate to the case. I don't think the flavor of a drink is influenced in any specific way by serving it differently. You can't change the flavor, though you may dilute it by serving it in the ice. 

Here are three new combinations from the stainless steel counter. Hot off the press! Journalists used to be thought of as lushes. After spiking their stories, they'd repair to the local watering hole to quench their sorrows in a couple of stiff drinks. Hereabouts, I remember that Herb Caen and Charles McCabe were notorious, each having an assigned seat in their respective corner tavern(s). 

These blog entries bear a certain vague resemblance to journalism, so I guess I can fantasize that I share that habit with the trade, though of course newspaper writers no longer "go to work"--doing their stories on computers in the privacy of their own digs. Big "city desk" daily offices don't exist any more, having been obsoleted by the digital age.    

3 1/2 bourbon
1 1/2 part triple sec
1 part pisco
1/2 part lemon
peychaud bitters

Shaken and served up.


2 part dark rum
2 parts sweet vermouth
1 part orange liqueur
1 part sweet lime
2 parts "flat" ginger soda

Stirred and served over ice.


2 parts rye
2 parts sweet vermouth
1 part bitter orange liqueur
1 teaspoon allspice liqueur
1/2 part fresh lemon juice

Shaken and served up with a slice of lemon peel. 

Announcing our new edition of Larry Eigner's Short Poems

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deliberate stillness / in winded birds  


(Short Poems) 





Larry Eigner

As readers of this blog know, Robert Grenier and I co-edited both the Collected Poems of Larry Eigner [Stanford University Press: 2010], as well as the Selected Poems of Larry Eigner [Tuscaloosa: 2018]. 

After years of meticulouly editing all of Eigner's poems, to be presented in Courier (typewriter face) type, based on his accurate typescripts, I decided that I'd like to design and edit a selection of his shorter poems, both as an expression of my taste, as well as an exercise in fine press typography and binding. deliberate stillness / in winded birds is that book. 

The title is a line from a poem that is not included in the collection. I see it as an exquisitely crafted poem in itself, rather haiku-like. Though the selection is not technically "minimalist" it does emphasize poems of just a couple or three lines in length. 

There's always a danger with very short poems, that they will descend into punchlines or jokes. Certainly there are a couple like that in this selection, but only for comic relief. Eigner's poems are meditations on perception, and phenomena. Sometimes they are instantaneous, rather than ruminative. The book is unpaginated. There are 70 poems, one to a page; followed by my brief editorial post-face. Limited, as the colophon states, to 75 numbered copies. Oblong format. A few will be gifted to friends of the publisher, the rest will be for sale at $200 per. 

Eigner was prolific. This small selection may serve as an introduction to his work, if any were needed, a juicy tidbit of the whole. If you enjoy this kind of craft, there are few things more enjoyable than making a book, from beginning to end. Guiding it out toward the middle of the pond. 







The George Floyd Case

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It's probably impossible to talk about the George Floyd case without offending someone at this point. It has become so over-hyped and exaggerated on several levels that it's unlikely ever to be rationally discussed, either in the media (television, radio, newsprint) or in public or private conversation. No matter what anyone may say about it, from whatever point of view, there is likely to be disagreement, even indignation. 

Whenever anyone's life and death are taken up so emphatically and purposefully as his, and made to serve such heavily symbolic or political ends, there's bound to be distortions, half-truths, and fantasies. Many people will believe what they want to believe, some will think what they're told to think, and many will feel constrained by the delicacy of the situation to express what they really feel personally, lest they be condemned and shamed.    



What do we know about the case? 

George Floyd was picked up in Minneapolis after he attempted to pass a $20 counterfeit bill. Small-time counterfeiting isn't a very big deal. Low denomination bills are made and distributed frequently in poor urban communities. We used to get them with some regularity in a small bookstore where I worked some years ago. I wondered then how any self-respecting crook could make much headway with bills of that denomination. The police didn't seen much interested in pursuing these cases. 

Floyd may have been resisting arrest, though to what degree has not been made clear. Floyd was a big man, strong, and seemed cantankerous in the brief flashes of video which have been released. It is not unusual for police officers to push a suspect down on the pavement and put on handcuffs. Though many police departments have outlawed choke-holds or knee-on-back/neck maneuvers, this has been a routine way that suspects of all denominations have been handled for decades in law enforcement. 

Video clips of police arrests have become common since the invention of cell phone cameras, and this has led to a number of disputed accounts over police practice and false reporting. The Floyd arrest and death would never have come to public attention without the private unauthorized video of the incident, which "went viral" on social media. Both public and private surveillance and recordation have opened law enforcement to a whole new sphere of exposure and revelation, which is bound to be used or misused by anyone seeking to make partisan points. 

Once the video was made public, we witnessed a widespread reaction across the nation, and even abroad, outcry and demonstration by those incensed and indignant about "police brutality" which they believe is a perfect example of racist law enforcement, of oppression by establishment power. It's been taken up as an example of unequal social justice, as proof of the "structural" racism inherent in our official laws and practices. George Floyd is being held up as the poster-child of a whole social movement whose demands include defunding of city police departments, increased funding for African American communities, reduced or commuted sentences for black prisoners, new guidelines for training law officers, etc. 

Just what sort of man was George Floyd, and why has his case become so volatile and crucial to the American body politic? His Wiki page reveals a distressingly familiar life-arc, a physically gifted big black boy growing up in the ghetto, good at sports, who gets an athletic scholarship in college, yet doesn't quite make it to the professional level, for whatever reason, who then falls back into reduced circumstances, finding pick-up unskilled work, who fancies himself a small-time Rap artist, fathers several children with different women, out of wedlock, and eventually moves on to a life of petty crime, and a prison sentence (for armed robbery). You could view his life as a tragic example of descent, from hope and effort to ultimate failure and death. Toward the end, he had made efforts to rehabilitate himself, though these efforts may not have amounted to much. Coroners reports indicate he had a virtual "cocktail" of illegal substances in his body, and had hypertension and hardening of the arteries. Watching officer Chauvin resting his knee on Floyd's neck, casually looking at this cell phone, I'm not convinced that there was either malicious intent, or any deliberate attempt to murder. Perhaps the only suprisng fact that's come out is that Chauvin and Floyd probably knew each other, having worked at the same night club as security guards in 2019.

Was George Floyd's life an inspiration? Was his death a great tragedy? In such a situation, these questions are not entirely secondary, though from the standpoint of justice and our democratic values, the taking of a life must always be regarded as a serious commission. As a matter of fact, criminals (of all races and backgrounds) are routinely treated to physical abuse and degradation, both in custody and on our streets. But does this happen to African Americans more than others? Apparently. Yet if we choose to measure these (racial) differences in enforcement, we must acknowledge the disparities in behavior as well. We may consider socio-economic factors in criminal causation, but we must also acknowledge the contexts within which such disparate events occur. If high percentages of crime in urban communities are committed by "people of color" then we should expect a consequent high percentage of such arrests and treatment to be reflected statistically. 

Perhaps the saddest thing about the George Floyd case is not its exceptional uniqueness or crucial significance, but its banal routine quality. There are tens of thousands of such cases across the land, of  poor young men, of any race or background, seduced into the remote possibility of wealth or fame by the mirage of professional sports or entertainment, who end up in dead-end lives, committing crime, abusing alcohol and drugs, leaving a trail of broken families and neglected children. At the time of his death, Floyd's life was on an all-too-common downward trajectory. 

Did George Floyd's life "matter"? Of course, to his relations and those who knew him. But to the general population, the man on the street, his life was part of the great anonymous mass of ordinary people whose lives we never know or care about. 

What exactly is "social justice"? Is it separate from actual justice, the justice we fix in law and regulation? Can what people feel, and how they behave toward one another, be legislated and enforced, the same way we legislate law and enforcement of our written laws? Can we tell people how they should regard others? Or is this "social" justice the old "eye for an eye" brand, the vigilante justice of the mob, of the vendetta? 

Was George Floyd the victim of legal injustice, or social injustice? Was his death the result of his being African American, a career petty criminal, a victim of class inequities, or some combination of these?  And if he was a victim, does his death tell us something important about racial "justice" in America? Without question, it does to a certain degree. But not to the extent that it's being made out to be. Floyds' death was unfortunate, but not heroic. Not tragic. Pathetic. Sad. Unnecessary. But not the occasion for national grief and upheaval. 

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Few logos have the instant familiarity of Coca-Cola. 

It's known the world over as the popular soft-drink whose taste ingredient formula is among the most guarded secrets. Over the years, there have been imitators, and probably not many people would be able to tell the difference if offered a sample of competing brands of cola. Despite this, the company is still a leader in its field--a tribute to its shrewd brand marketing. 

The idea that a constructed artificial flavor could come to have so universal quality is kind of astounding. Certain other drink flavors, such as root beer or orange soda, may seem as identifiable, but do not have the same branded strength. 

Often, when inventing cocktails, I'll stumble upon an unintended flavor, a combination which resembles a familiar taste. Coke has popped up along the flavor spectrum several times. This one, which I've named The Inspector, sidles up to Coke, and brushes it gently on the elbow, but obviously isn't a blood brother, just a distant taste-a-like. Still, it's close enough to remark, since so many people know what the sensation is.        

Coca-Cola isn't very good for you. In fact, it was probably responsible for the spate of nasty cavities I developed during my last year of high school, when I bought Coke for lunches at the little concession stand on the school grounds behind the main building. I soon gave it up, but the damage was done. No self-respecting kid in those days would have been caught dead brushing his or her teeth in the lavatory. I'm probably lucky I still have all mine, albeit with the collection of fillings and caps that constitute my set.  



The Inspector 

 1.5 Famous Grouse blended scotch
1/2 part sweet (Cynar) vermouth
1 tablespoon creme de cacao
1 tablespoon lemon juice
1/2 teaspoon Demerara bitters

Served on the rocks.


The other outrider is a gin concoction that includes pear liqueur, an ingredient familiar to European drinkers, but not so much in America. Fruit flavors vary, and some have become synonymous with their brand-names. Slivovitz, a central European liqueur or spirit, comes to mind, as a mixer that approaches the pear flavor, though its typical starting base is plum. Often, characteristic tastes become associated in my mind with certain drinks, even though they may not actually be made from the fruit I associate with them. How close are plum and pear in taste? To my mind, pear has always been a sort of relative of apple, but it behaves differently in combination than apple does. In the drink below, the pear mates with the sweeter candy-like quality of Chartreuse, and the drying acidity of the lime, to produce a nice little pyramid of flavor.    

Breezy

2 parts City of London gin
1 part pear liqueur
1/3 part yellow Chartreuse
1 part fresh lime juice

Shaken and served up. Garnish with lemon wedge.


During the current pandemic, most of the local liquor stores were closed, or were only open for pick-up at the entrance. This last week, BevMo finally allowed customers in for the first time in several weeks, which allowed me to stock up on some spirits I hadn't been able to find elsewhere, or which I preferred to buy at their lower price-settings. The warehouse space they have is also spacious enough to vacate any sense of jeopardy to transmission, though everyone of course wore masks. 

Here's to a healthier future, when we may toast those bad old days when the virus oppressed our daily lives in so many unpleasant ways! 

Sierra Club Turns Left

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Fair warning here: I have never been a member of the Sierra Club, and I have never spent time supporting any environmental protection organization, though I have occasionally given money to support them. Some will always accuse you of not putting your time and money where your mouth is, but participating in a political debate doesn't require that one must have been involved in something to have an opinion about it. 

From an early age, I was taught to respect nature, and to view with suspicion and disdain any attempt to compromise the health of the natural environment through resource exploitation or unrestrained human expansion. Our family took camping trips, where we hiked and fished, frequently in National or State Parks in California. Later when we were raising our family, we took trips to Montana, Idaho, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Wyoming. 

I tacitly accepted the value and purpose of nature reserves for public appreciation, though I later came to be somewhat disillusioned about how those reserves were managed and maintained by the agencies and services empowered to run them. Later still, I came to understand more about the history of the American environmental movement, and the various continuing disputes regarding its mission and strategies. 

The core purpose of nature reserves it to preserve them against development, environmental degradation, and to facilitate access without compromising their values. There are many kinds of appreciation of nature. Most people are not interested in "roughing it" in nature, and would be incapable of doing so. But most people have also come to understand that the environment is a whole condition, interconnected and indivisible, which must be viewed in its totality. Though most people in the modern world live "inside" civilization--in cities and precincts that are not natural, but artificial--they do accept and acknowledge that our connection to the whole of the planet's systems is a fact. We can't separate ourselves from nature, and pretend that it (nature) is something "out there" which we can exploit and visit and treat as a discrete entity. Philosophically, this suggests that whatever we do "to" nature we also "do" to ourselves, that use or misuse of the environment affects everything else, including all the land and water, and the creatures who occupy it (including humans). 

Human civilization is not static. It has evolved over time, through movement and development and struggle. The earth has evolved into a collection of nations, or nation-states, each of which dictates to a greater or lesser extent, what happens within its boundaries, and to and among its people. This is a sovereignty that is generally respected, but frequently violated. The history of civilization over the past two millennia is the record of conflict, shifting boundaries,  imbalances, oppressions, and instabilities. But the notion of national sovereignties living peacefully, in cooperation, is a persistently expressed goal. We pay lip service to that principle, though we seldom live up to it. 

What seems clear is that in disputes involving environmental preservation, national sovereignty holds sway. One country cannot dictate to another country, what its politics should be with respect to environmental practice, human habitation and economic development. Each nation is restricted by this principle to the affairs and laws that apply within its own boundaries. As much, for instance, as we would like Brazil to stop burning its rain forests, or China from damming its rivers, we don't have the authority to force them to do so. 

This is another way of saying that we only can have control over that which belongs within our jurisdiction. As long as we live in a world of nations, we're largely restricted to focusing on conditions within our own territory. If we wish to apply the principles of environmental balance, or piecemeal environmental preservation, we're limited to our own borders. 


John Muir with Teddy Roosevelt 

Yesterday, Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune issued a press release, "Pulling Down Our Monuments" in which he outlined the club's new position with respect to its founder John Muir. Brune accused Muir of being "racist". The proof he gives of this assertion is that he "maintained friendships with people like Henry Fairfield Osborn, who worked for . . . the conservation of the white race . . . [and] helped found the American Eugenics Society in the years after Muir's death." He says that Muir "made derogatory comments about Black people and indigenous peoples . . . [which] continue to hurt and alienate indigenous people and people of color who come into contact with the Sierra Club." 

Has there ever been an outcry in the Media or from private citizens about the racist nature of The Sierra Club? If there were, I've never heard of them. Was the Sierra Club formed as an "white supremacist" organization, like the Ku Klux Klan, to enforce bigotry and oppression of minorities? On the contrary, the Club was created to foster protection of nature, and to encourage its appreciation through sponsored visitation and appreciation. The Sierra Club, though highly political in its operations--through its attempts to influence and direct legislation and rulings favorable to its environmental mandate--was not created to foster social justice or racial equality. 

One could make an argument that any organization which has a high profile, and carries a charter that sets up social and economic goals, would need to conduct itself in a free and open manner, not making decisions and choices that reflect undemocratic sentiments. That's what you might expect. 

But that is not to suggest that it should alter its mission to make itself an advocate or player in legal disputes surrounding race or ethnic identities. Why should it be necessary to demonize the founding members of an organization, in order the suit the political vagaries of various pressure-groups which want to penalize and hijack the organization for their own purposes, which have little or nothing to do with environmental protection? 

Does it help the environment in the Southwest to allow unbridled illegal immigration from Central and South America? Who benefits if millions of such "refugees" stream northward, straining the limits of our resources to accommodate them? Are we to set up a choice between "humanitarian" concern for the poor of Third World nations against the environmental health of our own country? Can the Sierra Club solve the inequities of racism by dethroning its founder? 

The attempt to accommodate political pressure groups by adopting internally embarrassing or destructive policies is a phenomenon we're seeing across the board right now. Some years ago, there occurred a schism within the Sierra Club, when its then head David Brower, who felt the club needed to take strong stands against extractive industry, population growth and uncontrolled immigration, left the organization to found a new group called Friends of the Earth. Brower felt that too many concessions had been made to industry. The Glen Canyon Dam and the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant both happened during his tenure. Clearly, the club had not succeeded in its core mission to protect these important natural places. 

Some would argue that Brower represented a liberal revolution within the environmental movement, a radical departure. But Brower's version of the club's mission was closer to its original mandate, than what the club had become by 2000. 

Within the context of the shifting definitions of environmental protection, Brune's position appears, once again, ironically, to be a hard left turn, not toward more commitment to the environmental commitments, but rather to political correctness. Whereas the club once struggled to find a political balance between hard-line and compromise with respect to the environmental struggle, it now attempts to repudiate its first founders, and will "Pending approval from our board . . . shift $5 million from our budget over the next year -- and more in the years to come -- to make long-overdue investments in our staff of color and our . . . racial justice work." In other words, the Sierra Club will spend some of its money on minority outreach and hiring, and diversity training. 

In all honesty, I have a hard time understanding how this can benefit the environment. 


A Sunny Day in 1952 or so

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Edwin Denby is a pleasure probably as obscure to most people as one might imagine, given the scope and intensity of his work. 

He was a professional ballet dancer in his youth, and would become one of the best writers (or critics) about dance there has ever been. Along the way, he produced some very original verse, which even fewer people probablyt know about. His Wiki gives the basic bio, though it tells you nothing about the quality of his writing.   





I have appreciated his poetry, and it's eminently quotable, but here I just want to quote this stunning passage from his essay on the New York City Ballet company, from 1952. For me, it evokes some of the gentle serenity of its time, when people had the leisure to enjoy a quick diversion from the business of living and working, or getting from place to place. Denby loved New York, and this is how it feels to love something that is complex and somehow fleeting and permanent at the same time. 

"I hadn't expected so intense a pleasure, looking at New York again, in the high white February sunlight, the chidishly euphoric climate; looking down Second Avenue, where herds of vehicles go charging one way all day long disappearing into the sky at the end like on a prairie; looking up a side of a skyscraper, a flat and flat and a long and long, and the air drops down on your head like a solid. Like a solid too the air that slices down between two neighbor skyscrapers. Up in the winter sunlight the edge of such a building far up is miraculously intense, a feeling like looking at Egyptian sculpture. Down in the streets the color, the painted colors are like medieval color, like the green dress of the Van Eyck double portrait in the National Gallery, intently local and intently lurid. And New York clothes--not a trace of charm, dressing is ritualistic like in Africa (or the Middle Ages); the boys are the most costumed; dressed men and women look portentously maneuverable; one set looks more dry-cleaned than the other, and those count as rich. New York is all slum, a calm, an uncomforatable, a grand one. And the faces on the street by day: large, unhandsome, lumped with the residue of every possible human experience, and how neutral, left exposed, left unprotected, uncommitted. I havve never seen anything so marvelous. A detachment from character that reminds me of the Arhats in Chinese painting. Women as well as men in middle age look like that, not comforting but O.K. if you believe in marvels, "believe in" in the sense of live with. They have no conversation, but a slum movie put on its marquee: "Sordid"--Times; "Unsavoury Details"--Herald Tribune. I never saw so civilized an advertisement in Paris. Manners are calm, everybody is calm in New York except where maybe somebody is just having a fit. No one looks dominated. But one minority looks sometimes as though it suffered acutely, the adolescents. They throw themselves about the city, now supersonic, now limp as snails, marvelously unaware of adults or children. Suddenly across their blank faces runs a flahs of anguish, of huntedness, of brutal vindictiveness, of connivance--the pangs of reformatory inmates; a caged animal misery. They are known as punks and jailbait and everybody defers to them, everybody spoils them as people do to what they recognize as poetic. They are not expected to make any return. A few years later they have put on weight, whether girls or boys, and the prevalant adult calm has commenced for and closed on them too, and others are adolescent. Another magic thing about New York is that everything you look at by day, people, buildings, views, everything is the same distance away, like in Egyptian sulcpture too. When I look about me in New York I feel as if I saw with an eagle's kind of eye; lovely Italy I looked at with a dear simpatico horse's eye. But you want me to tell you about the city's ballet company, which I adore . . . ."

--from Dancers, Buildings and People in the Street [New York: Horizon Press, 1965, p 23-4. 





A Greek Coda

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Patrick Leigh Fermor, an English war hero, eccentric and poet of travel and account [1915-2011]. I'm just beginning to know and appreciate him, through his own travel writings, which focus upon Greece. The British seem to spawn these restless, curious, perspicacious rogues, who set out for exotic locales, and return with astonishing accounts and tales and impressions, sometimes never returning home, who apprise and appreciate and regard and in some cases adopt and occupy, the foreign destinations they discover. Fermor is one of these. An adventurer, a searcher, a builder, an interpreter, and ultimately a creator of a life in exile, more interesting and absorbing than he could ever have found or made in his native country. 



"Paddy" Fermor as he was known, was dubbed "a dangerous mixture of sophistication and recklessness" as a boy by his schoolmaster. At 18 he did a walking tour of Europe, from Holland to Turkey. Paddy fell in love with a Romanian noblewoman, and spent the next several years moving restlessly about, principally in Greece. With the outbreak of war in 1939, he returned home and enlisted in the army. Because of his knowledge of Greek, he was sent there and fought in Crete, organizing the local resistance, and famously capturing a high German general, for which he was decorated.   


After the war, he took up the role of travel writer, and lived in Greece. He designed and had built a magnificent house, and remained there for the rest of his long life, writing and living splendidly, dying at age 96.  


Roumeli [London: John Murray, 1966] is a book about Northern Greece, a country and a culture which Paddy loved. I've been dipping into it lately. The final chapter 6, is a paean to this world, and it is filled with poetic evocation, a riff of pure lyricism. A catalogue of impressions of places, ending with a chanting denouement, which I quote below.  

 

Pictures of Fermor's house in Greece.







The seas of Greece are the Odyssey whose music we can never know: the limitless sweep and throb of prosody, the flex and reflux of hexameters scanned by winds and currents and accompanied, for its escort of accents,

for the fall of its dactyls
the calm of spondees
the run of tribrachs
the ambiguity of trochees
and the lash of anapaests;
for the flexibility of accidence,
the congruence of syntax
and the confluence of its crasis;
for the fluctuating of enclitic and proclitic,
for the half ot caesurae and the flight of the digamma, 
for the ruffle of hard and soft breathings,
for its liquid syllables and the collusion of diphthongs,
for the receding tide of proparxytones
and the hollowness of perispomena stalactitic with subscripts
for the inconsequence of anacolouthon,
the economy of synecdoche,
the compression of hendiadys
and the extravagance of its epithets,
for the embrace of zeugma,
for the abruptness of asyndeton
for the swell of hyperbole
and the challenge of apostrophe,
for the splash and the boom and the clamour and the echo and the murmur of onomatopoia\

by the
islands and harbours and causeways and soundings and crescents of shingle, whirlpools and bays and lagoons and narrows and chasms and roadsteads, seismic upheavals of crags in the haze of meridian panic, sockets and smouldering circles of stone and dying volcanoes; islets lying in pale archipelagos, gulfts, reefs and headlands, warrened with cavities, that end in a litter of rocks and spkes where the limestone goes dark at sunset; thunderbolt sea-marks scattered on the water, light in the reign of the Pleiades, slowly spinning the sea-sounds that sigh in thew carves of solitary islands.  


Announcing the publication of an Eigner broadside The Music, The Rooms.

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In 1965, Larry Eigner published The Music, The Rooms. It was later issued as a folding broadside, which of course has been out of print for many years. I've always regarded it as Eigner's finest poem of some length. Though he wrote other poems of approximately this length--poems perhaps 2 pages long--this one seems particularly dense and involved--un-typically so, given the nature of his writing style. 

Back in April 2009, I wrote at some length about this poem in a blog post here at The Compass Rose, so I won't go on about it again. 

The broadside was printed letterpress by Richard Seibert in an edition of 50. It will be given away to the friends of The Compass Rose. Others wishing to purchase a copy should contact us. 







 

The Variable Timepiece

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What kind of a mind creates an interlocking configuration such as this?

I suppose, broken down into its subsets, it's a completely logical and straightforward arrangement of parts, coordinated into movements and settings and increments that exactly mark the progress of time. A time piece. A piece of time. A device for the measure of the passage through a dimension. 

In the digital age, humans can now create electronic circuit boards that probably make this picture primitive in comparison. It's just an integrated "circuit" made from metal (and perhaps some jewels) designed to move at precise divisions, whose duration is in turn based on the movement of other bodies, i.e., the earth, the sun and other heavenly bodies. 

Philosophers of the past might once have thought such an instrument as being almost supernatural in its qualities, just as they surely would have been astonished at the digital technology that drives our interactive techno-culture today. In our time, science and philosophy have merged increasingly together, as speculation has been overtaken by discovery and empirical proof. As theoretical physics becomes more and more abstruse and even metaphysical in its implications, what we think of as miracles seems more and more to resemble reality.     

This watch mechanism is diverting to the eye, but it's also a crude attempt at mimicking what has developed naturally in the universe. Bodies are clocks, just as astronomical bodies in motion are. Our hearts beat at a certain rate, though with constant small variations. 

Can we eventually create computers that have their own motivations and desires? Or are we mistaken in thinking that our free will is more than an illusion, and that the mechanisms through which we exist have always been determined, by the designs themselves? 



 

The Ball That Ruth Hit

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                                                                The ball that Ruth hit

                                                                Went straight up and over

                                                                The centerfield wall

                                                                And kept going

                                                                Gathering speed

                                                                Throwing off its cover

                                                                And trailing string

                                                                It kept going

                                                                Into a time warp

                                                                And landed in the backyard

                                                                Of a kid in Ohio 

                                                                In 1928

                                                                Who found it, just 

                                                                A mass of tattered 

                                                                Thread and cork and rubber

                                                                In the grass so

                                                                The kid scavenged it

                                                                Put it in his cigar box

                                                                Of strange unidentified 

                                                                Flying objects

                                                                Alongside the indian arrowhead

                                                                The steel penny

                                                                And the other artifacts 

                                                                Of a vanished

                                                                America. 



 

    


Welcome to GonnaWannaLand

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Much of the verbiage we hear emanates from the Media. Radio, television, the movies, the Press, the internet, public address. The Media in turn reflects the linguistic habits of the general population. You would think that Media outlets, such as television and radio, would be self-conscious about what they project, and that might once have been true. As standard-bearers of a level of speech (and grammar) performance, you might think Media would take some responsibility for its mandates. But you'd be wrong. Once upon a time, purveyors of news and information in America would have understood that talking down to its audience was cheap pandering, that audiences might see that as a form of condescension. But in today's media world, the news and information media have dropped all pretense of standards, and are happy to share the slack-jawed complacence of commonplace exchange, the passivity of the vulgate.

At any given time, people are likely to employ short-handles of language, which propagate like viruses in everyday talk. Here is a sampling of such phrases, words and slang, which have become habitual in the Media.

Have to say -- This is a phrase which is inserted whenever the speaker wants to signal a sense of reluctance in insisting that their sentiment is somehow necessary, or feels a mandate in expressing it, as if the speaker had no choice, or was slightly embarrassed to have to say it. It's an expedient caution or flag of presumption that I find offensive, and tiresome.      

Just sayin'--This phrase is also an apologetic shield to protect the speaker from being perceived as too declarative, or wants to be forgiven for expressing their position. Its slanginess I find objectionable, and should never be used. 

That said -- A short-hand for "having said that." I don't know when this slick little handle entered the vulgate, but it's become nearly universal in its use. People use it as a transition phrase, to lend a sense of authority or justification to what they're going to say next. They think it sounds sensible and authoritative, but it just sounds naive and pretentious.   

Feel like -- This phrase appeared a few years back, and it's become universal. People of every persuasion and degree of sophistication use it freely, most often in place of "I feel" or "I think" or "I sense." It seems to constitute a form of evasion or fake modesty, that the speaker is unwilling to take full responsibility for an assertion or reaction, and instead distance themselves from that responsibility by claiming to have a feeling that is "like" a feeling one could have, or may have, or is simply too vague or uncertain to say directly. Whenever you feel yourself about to use this phrase, ask yourself whether just saying "I think" or "I feel" wouldn't be more direct and explicit than introducing the simile "like" to the statement. Do you really not quite feel or think what you are saying? Or is this merely a bad habit you've picked up and are using for convenience? 

That's a great question -- Not just celebrities or experts, but everyone in the Media is now using this stupid phrase. The point of asking and answering questions in public is not to enable the responder to judge the efficacy or relevance of the question, but to ANSWER the question! Saying "that's a great question" tells us nothing. It may be a way of complimenting the questioner for their relevance, or of admitting that the responder can't answer it (it's too hard, or too "big" a question). The simplest solution is not to use this response at all, since it accomplishes nothing. Just answer the question, and drop the dumb rejoinder. 

Gonna' -- The use of "going to" may be marginally acceptable in accurate speech, as in a promissory or predictive sense, but it's much over-used, and in this elided slang form "gonna" it's offensively "familiar" and should be avoided. If something will happen or is likely to happen, then say that it will happen, not that it's gonna' happen!

Gonna' wanna' -- You can always tell when a speaker is a casual dunderhead when they use "gonna-wanna."Going to want to is awkward, and even if the speaker wants to sound casual, or politely condescending, it tends to undercut the message it's designed to impart. Gonna is bad enough; gonna wanna is three times worse. 

Actually -- I suppose in our computer age, "actual" may be a foil for "virtual"--as in virtual reality as opposed to reality itself. But people now have become habituated to its insertion in nearly every instance in which emphasis is intended. If you want to emphasize a fact, or a phenomenon, ask yourself if what you mean to say is "actual" or merely definite or definitive. The "actualization" of something is not its importance, or emphasis, but its being as a physical or specific fact. If you say "I'm actually going to do that" you're not adding anything whatever to the doing, except showing your inappropriate use of the word actually. In addition, many people mispronounce the word, saying "ack-sha-ly" ignoring the "t" and "u" sounds entirely. Ignorance incarnate.  

Any time soon -- This is an entirely inaccurate and useless phrase in the language. Any time, or soon may be used separately, with some accurate comprehension, but "any time soon" means essentially nothing. Any time soon might mean in an hour, a day, a week, a month, a year, a decade, or a century. In fact, it may mean all of these durations, or none of them. It's a stupid phrase, and anyone who uses it should be flogged. 

It is what it is -- Cute little meaningless tautology, whose inventiveness is diverting the first time you hear it, but irritating whenever it reappears. People think it's so charming, so obvious, so clever. It isn't. It's just dumb. 

Which I said that -- This is a pronoun now commonly misunderstood. Used in a sentence to refer to a previously mentioned thing or things, it forms the subject of a subsidiary clause, of which it is the subject. Therefore, following which with "that" is ungrammatical, since which is the subject, i.e., it's redundant. Even people who have been to college seem to misunderstand this. It's breathtaking. 

Going forward -- This is another transition phrase that people use to indicate the future. It's usually unnecessary, and adds nothing to the sense of the statement. You could add "going forward" to almost any sentence about any subject, and people would probably accept it. Why not use "in future" or "in the future" or "in the coming days" instead?

Massive -- Grammarians and anthologists may argue about this word, but its clear sense is density, not size. It does not mean large, or very large. Everyone says everything is massive these days. A massive mistake, a massive earthquake, a massive stroke, a massive consequence. So stop! They're all wrong!  

Contra-VER-shle -- The word is pronounced con-tro-VER-see-al. Not the other way. Learn it. Say it right. It's as bad as nog-ger-A-shun.  That's een-aug-gure-A-shun. Thank you, Yamiche.  

Ahnt-ta-pa-NOOR -- Entrepreneur is a delightful word of French derivation, one which deserves to be pronounced correctly. EN-tra-pin-ERR. Please drop that 'OOOOOOR" at the end. Sounds dumb. Is dumb.  

Healing -- Healing has become another of those buzz-words so fond to psychologists, social activists, and religious vigilantes. Anything wrong in the world causes hurt, or injury. Therefore everyone must be "healed"--i.e., mended, bandaged, cared-for, rested, assisted, made whole again. Whenever I hear the word healing I know the conversation has gone south, into a precinct where nothing of value or intelligence can occur. Everybody must get stoned. Everybody must get healed. Heal thyself! 

In regards to -- There's simply no excuse for the bad grammar. Regards--the plural form of regard--is commonly employed as a sign-off to letters or messages, as in "kind regards" or "best regards" but it is thoroughly ungrammatical to say "in regards to" or "with regards to". The correct construction is "in regard to" employing the singular of regard (not the plural!). 

Sorta and Kinda -- These adverbial interjections are sloppy and vague to begin with, but when used by otherwise intelligent speakers, indicate an unwillingness to qualify a statement properly, attempting to seem familiar or casual in an assertion. If a thing is rather true or partially true, it's probably best not to frame it as a simple statement, and instead provide a qualifier with more grace. These are related to feel like, in that they are used to distance the speaker from responsibility for their assertion. 

You know what -- Usually employed, like "guess what" to indicate emphasis, but rarely effective. "And you know what?" is overused these days, and it adds literally nothing to the sense to which it points. It's meant to announce some degree of revelation, but it's usually unnecessary, or just plain inappropriate.  

Way-dumb -- The use of "way" in place of "very" or "pretty" is an indication of ignorance. It's become a cute slangy way of indicating a superlative, but it simply signals naiveté. Anyone over the age of 13 who uses it, should be spanked.   

That's on me -- Another instance of juvenile slang. To say that anything is "on" someone is akin to saying that someone in a game of tag is "it." It's poor slang, at best, and ignorant at worst. 

 

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          Memory

 

The past is a map 

we are flying over.

We can see the countryside,

the towns where we lived,

the houses, the roads, the

unfolding contours of 

surface.  We can see everything

with perfect perspective and 

controlled regard.

 

But we can’t land. 





AMAZOOM* ANNOUNCES NEW PRE-ORDER PROGRAM !!!

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 AMAZOOM ANNOUNCES NEW PRE-ORDER PROGRAM !!!



In the continuing crusade to provide our customers with constantly improving service options, we're announcing today a new program designed to deliver goods to you at unprecedented speed. Whereas before, customers might hope to receive their orders within 72 hours, or even the next day (!), we're now offering them delivery of items BEFORE THEY ORDER THEM!!! 

That's right, customers who choose the Pre-Order option will begin to receive goods pre-selected for them, based on their consolidated internet profile !! And the best part? They don't even need to place an order, since the orders will be shipped automatically, at pre-set intervals ! 

Here's how to sign up: Go to our AMAZOOM Homepage, and click on the red "Pre-Order" hot button. All you need to do to activate your account, is to sign the privileges and obligations page, and push send ! Your credit card account will be automatically migrated from your updated account profile. There'll be a few simple additional questions regarding the median price-range and frequency request. Then, once we've approved your application, you'll begin receiving parcels immediately, and your credit card will be automatically charged, without your having to take any additional actions ! 

In the past, online customers had to go through the laborious and time-consuming process of scrolling through endless lists and irritating advertisements, to actually locate the things they want. Now, all that is in the past ! Now, your pre-selected items will be automatically selected for you, based on your digital profile, and we GUARANTEE SATISFACTION !! If for any reason you decide you don't want the item, simply go online, and fill out the special Pre-Set Declination form.   








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